Trump proposed big Medicaid and food stamp cuts. Can he pass them?

[In It to Win It]

Vox

Now that it is clear Donald Trump will become president again and will have a Republican Senate and almost certainly a Republican House to back him, it’s important to ask: What will he do with these majorities? And given his track record last time, what will it mean for poor Americans and the programs they rely on?

The last time Trump won the presidency, in 2016, I wrote a piece predicting a huge rollback of the safety net. The Affordable Care Act (ACA), with its massive expansion of Medicaid and patient protections, would be repealed; Medicaid itself would see its funding slashed and its guarantee of coverage to poor people eliminated; food stamps would be cut deep and maybe turned over to the states, much as welfare for single parents was in 1996, largely destroying that program.

I was wrong. Trump, and especially then-House Speaker Paul Ryan, did try to do all of that, but in the end enough Republicans realized repealing the ACA wasn’t viable. Medicaid and food stamps survived more or less intact. A Democratic House after the 2018 midterms and, more importantly, a global pandemic, meant that by 2020, the safety net was significantly stronger than in 2016.

I do not know that the same scenario will play out in 2025, and I certainly hope the pandemic part does not repeat. But despite the devastating electoral blow to Democrats, there are reasons for safety net supporters to be optimistic.

[no_hypocrisy]

1. There may be riots if he does.

[enid602]

3. Prepared

I’m sure the Trump administration will have prepared for that eventuality.

[Andy823]

4. He promised a lot of things last time

He didn't do hardly any thing to help those who need it. I don't think he has changed a bit. All he cares about is MONEY, and himself. Once and asshole always an asshole!

[calguy]

5. He'll pass them

The difference between 2016 and 2024 is that that so-called 'moderate' Republicans who supposedly 'saved' the ACA did not vote to 'save' it. It was saved by one man, John McCain, and he's dead.
Moderate Republicans, if there actually were any, have been thrown out of the party.

[bluesbassman]

8. That's an extremely important point.

Most of the Republicans that cared about any kind of safety net have been primaried and replaced. The knuckle draggers that are there now will be drunk with their "MAGA mandate". There are precious few guardrails left in place. The immediate future looks bleak indeed.

[dalton99a]

17. +1

[dsc]

19. that actually isn't true

three Republicans voted against it, not one. Collins, Murkowski, and McCain voted no. The reason McCain is remembered is that the other two were against doing so from the beginning and he waited until the end to make his decision. He also was rather ill at the time and it may have been his final vote in office.

[calguy]

21. Thank you for correcting me.

[nolabear]

6. This is an important point. Exactly what CAN he do?

First I think some of it is bluster and he has no idea what he’s talking about. The 2025 people are far more worrisome but once things get in motion the at least sane Republicans (remember how many came out against that asshole) may well plot against him and save some things like Obamacare, the Departments of Health and Education and tariffs. I worry a lot about women’s health and LGBTQ+ rights, immigration and the godawful Russian influence. In fact all foreign relationships. But some things may be saved.

What a shitty little sliver of optimism that is.

[bluesbassman]

10. I worry that the P2025 group is just going to gut the Departments and install toadies or "acting" heads.

Then TSF will just enact law by Presidential order. Who'll stop him?

[nolabear]

11. That's something we need to know more about.

Or maybe I do. He can install Dept. Heads but how much power do they have? Can RFKJr really affect fluoridation and vaccination when really the vast majority of government officials favor them? What actually happens if you dump the Dept. of Education? Is it a free-for-all? Schools aren’t created overnight. Nor are policies. I don’t know, but it sounds like a massive overreach to me.

[bluesbassman]

12. Yes, like the mass deportations. How exactly would that get carried out?

That’s a logistical nightmare and would require a massive workforce to perform it. Will he mobilize the troops and risk using them against any US citizens that may get swept up in the raids? Will the USSC’s immunity ruling cover unconstitutional acts? So many questions.

[nolabear]

13. Exactly. And how many workers just disappear?

These are mostly established families. They’re not hanging out on welfare like he’s claimed. They have kids in school, do important jobs, have established ties or they couldn’t survive. It would have to go full jackboot and just the logistics are damn near impossible.

[dawg]

7. If I were on any sort of means-tested benefits, I'd be trying right now to make a plan to survive without them.

They certainly aren't safe.

Same goes for Obamacare subsidies, and maybe even the policies themselves.

Pre-existing conditions could come back, so if you're on a group plan right now, try like hell to stay on it.

[Prairie Gates]

9. He has both House and Senate and Courts and agencies

He can do Whatever He Wants.

They can pass every single promise he laid out in the first hundred days. No Tax on Tips, Social Security, or Overtime. Mass Deportation. Tariffs. National bans of trans kids in sports. National abortion ban (6 weeks or complete, really). All of it.

They can do all of it.

[nolabear]

14. Sadly, we'll see.

But I don’t think he can. Some, yes.

[Prairie Gates]

15. Why not?

You think he won't have support? None of those require anything other than a bill passed through both houses. That's it. Some (tariffs) don't even require that.

[Leghorn21]

22. YEP, he's got the support, the henchmen, the goons, the worshippers, enforcers etc etc working on his behalf, who

will say “no” to this psycho??

I’ll keep my fantasies to myself, but I’m bracing for the worst as far as getting bills passed and as far as dealing with the media, journalists, bloggers and anyone else who dares to not lick this god emperor’s disgusting toes…YEP

[sarisataka]

16. I expect we will see a Congress

that has been brought to heel. They have learned from other's example and we will see no one willing to stand up to oppose the regime.

The Republicans will become the most expensive singing club in DC.

[Blue Full Moon]

18. Well with his Supreme Court super powers

He can just sign a presidential order. Who's going to stop him? The Supreme Court?

[Vinca]

20. Of course. The Trump Chinese Bible says nothing about caring for the poor.