Polls or Gambling Odds?

[gab13by13]

I favor gambling odds over polls because the House stands to lose money if it fudges the odds too much.

I went to British gambling sites. The Brits had TSF beating Joe Biden.

I just checked today and the Brits have Kamala beating TSF 4/5, really close, but winning.

Now, I understand that these odds will change based upon who people are betting on. Looking at the bets, a lot more people are betting on Kamala which means the bookies are going to have to raise the odds. I am going to check back in a couple of weeks.

Follow the money, honey. 😍

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Not how gambling adds are set

The gambling odds are set based on the public's money. They want to keep betting as close to 50-50 as possible. So it it's 55-45 for Harris right now, what that tells us is that for the people who are willing to gamble money ona political election outcome, 55-45 gets close to half and half.

Gamblers lean Conservative.

The models that take into account polling and other factors are usually much more predictive.

[gab13by13]

2. Isn't that what I said?

I said the bets right now are going for Kamala and I am going to check back to see if the odds go up.

If no one is betting on TSF the bookies are going to have to give him higher odds.

If a month from now the British odds are still 4/5 then I believe it will be a close race.

By the bye, give me a list of reliable pollsters, it seems that 538 went to the dark side. If a poll has TSF favored by 4, and Kamala wins, that poll isn't going to lose any money. If a gambling site has TSF favored by 4 and Kamala wins, it is going to lose a ton of money.

[bbrady42]

3. I remember the betting markets getting gamed in 2020

TFG supporters made bets on him for the express purpose of moving the odds into his favor. They treated it more like a donation than an actual bet.

[gab13by13]

5. I don't think you are allowed to bet on the election in the United States.

Maybe they changed it?

[Trenzalore]

9. It is about to

Judge just tossed out the law. Think it is going through appeals

[gab13by13]

10. I just found it, holy shit, rife for more corruption.

https://apnews.com/article/betting-on-elections-gambling-kalshi-trump-harris-4f45fdf2bd8b1d30d4e1f131e637418a

[The Third Doctor]

4. Votes

[gab13by13]

7. People want to back a winner,

that's why sport's fans drop their "losing" favorite team and switch to a winning team.

[haele]

6. Be careful, Peter Thiel has started up a gambling site -

And you know he set it up to fleece the MAGA and MAGA adjacent, and brought in Nate Silver to help manipulate odds like polls can be manipulated.

Haele

[Aepps22]

8. GOTV

[gab13by13]

11. The odds could be 100-1 in favor of Kamala

and I will still walk through fire to vote.

[LogDog75]

12. At this point, I wouldn't trust either one

We've seen polling has changed over the years and they're not as accurate as they were 20 years ago so I wouldn't put much faith in them.

As for gambling on who will win, well, it's just gambling. With a potential of over 150 million voters, only a relatively small number of voters (independent and undecided voters) will actually decide who will win. Most gambling on an election is based either on intuition or bias for a candidate.

Another factor to consider is the republican voter suppression efforts in states they control will skew any polling data or gambling odds.