Florida now a closer race than Wisconsin on 538

[Tribetime]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Abortion and legal weed

And the 538 model is data based and doesn't account for the ballot initiatives that will certainly boost Harris's chances there.

Maybe I am biased because I live in Michigan and when legal weed got on the ballot we bagan to take over the state and completed the sweep when abortion protections made it on the ballot. Abortion made a massive difference here in 2022 and Dems swept all the big races and took over the state House and Senate. Abortion made like a 5 point difference. All the big statte races were landslides when the polls showed more competitive races.

And know this, their model predicts Harris will outperform the polls. Has her winning the popular vote by 4.2% when right now their polling average has her up 2.9%. They aren't just pulling that out of their rear, there is data supporting a Harris over perform.

[kansasobama]

2. What makes you say that?

Florida- Trump win 66%
Wisconsin - Harris win 66%

Even state polling average
WI - Harris 48.8 Trump 45.9
FL-Trump 49.4 Harris 45.4

Not close. In fact, Florida is same as 2020.

[Tribetime]

3. Florida 3.2% Wisconsin 3.3% scroll down to closet races

[kansasobama]

4. I see your point; I am looking at it another way

It is still a huge climb. 3.2% of Florida is a big climb, WI 3.3% is not that big.

We are looking at it in a different way.

[Darwins_Retriever]

5. The legal weed law only applies to weed grown and sold by comapnies

It will still be illegal for a private individual to grow, use, or sell weed. Florida only wants to decriminalize it if they can tax the sale and growth.

[JCMach1]

6. Florida came into play with the Mass Deportation Now signs

At the convention.

Throw in a Senate race between Skeletor and an intelligent WOC and several turnout inducing amendments and Florida is a battleground this cycle