WaPost Op Ed: Ukraine is bleeding out. It cannot fight forever.

[former9thward]

Supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes” does not match the reality of this conflict.

KYIV — The terrible cost of Russia’s continuing assault on Ukraine is viscerally clear at a military rehabilitation center on the outskirts of this city. Soldiers there describe how their bodies were shattered on the front lines. And they’re the lucky ones who survived.

Alexei was trying to hold his position at Pokrovsk, the scene of some of this year’s heaviest fighting, when a drone dropped a grenade near him. His left leg and right hand were nearly severed, attached by thin threads of tissue but now mended. Nikolai lost his left leg in Kharkiv, another Russian target. He waited 18 hours to be evacuated because of drone attacks. Dima lost both legs when his vehicle was hit by a drone in Pokrovsk. The four soldiers traveling with him were killed.

I met these wounded soldiers at a recovery center funded by a Ukrainian businessman named Victor Pinchuk, one of 15 similar facilities he has established around the country. Like soldiers everywhere, they’re kids, with sleeves of tattoos and T-shirts promoting heavy metal bands. But they got old in a hurry. Talking with a half-dozen of them Friday, I heard the same grim account of what’s at stake in this war. As Alexei put it: “We don’t have a choice. If we stop fighting, we’ll stop existing.”

Listening to their stories, you realize that Ukraine is bleeding out. Its will to fight is as strong as ever, but its army is exhausted by a ceaseless drone war that’s unlike anything in the history of combat. The Biden administration’s rubric of support — “as long as it takes” — simply doesn’t match the reality of this conflict. Ukraine doesn’t have enough soldiers to fight an indefinite war of attrition. It needs to escalate to be strong enough to reach a decent settlement.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/09/15/ukraine-strike-strategy-biden-help/

[yagotme]

1. As is usual in war, it's the # of bodies and stuff you can throw at the enemy, that determines the winner.

If all else is equal.

[Dennis Donovan]

2. Archive link:

https://archive.ph/tqy9W

FWIW, David Ignatius has never had much faith in Ukraine's chances in this war.

[Lonestarblue]

3. Restricting what Ukraine could do with the weapons supplied worked for Putin, not Ukraine.

Of course they’re exhausted. They’ve been forced to fight just to stay even, not to push Russian out.

[Moostache]

4. Bullshit...pardon my French.

We can determine that we will unilaterally arm and supply guerilla fighters in Ukraine to fight against Russian control for the next 75 years if needed. We can send them surplus arms, explosives and enough ordinance to kill Russian invaders forever. This idea that Russia's victory is assured and inevitable is the worst kind of Putin-serving nut sucking that it makes me want to puke.

How long can people fight to defend their homeland? Ask the Viet Cong.

[stopdiggin]

6. the guerilla and 'resistance' conflict

generally come AFTER a population has been invaded/subjected. The Ukrainians would prefer that not be a prerequisite.

[Moostache]

9. But they already HAVE been invaded and in some areas subjugated...

I am not sure that the Russian people actually want this fight any more than the Ukrainians wish to be conquered, but the entirety of Putin's plan seems to be to suffer as many casualties as necessary to bleed them dry regardless of the cost to his country. He is truly evil P.O.S.

[pat_k]

5. Grim but excellent piece

A recurring theme of the conference was that President Joe Biden should remove current limits on Ukraine’s use of American ATACMS long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia. A procession of speakers said Biden should stop worrying about the danger of Russian escalation — and implied he was weak for even considering the issue. That strikes me as wrong; a primary responsibility of any American president is to avoid war with a nuclear superpower.

But I came away from the conference thinking the United States should take more risks to help Ukraine. It matters how this war ends. If Putin prevails, it will harm the interests of America and Europe for decades.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

7. Ukraine has performed beyond anyone's expectations or hopes but this war cannot continue forever

Ukraine is a much smaller country compared to Russia and cannot continue this war forever. The losses that Ukraine has inflicted on Russia are amazing

Link to tweet

Putin is holding on hoping that TFG wins. If TFG loses, then I hope that Russia will either overthrow Putin or peace is otherwise obtaine

[WarGamer]

8. all true, of course.

[DJ Synikus Makisimus]

10. On the other hand, it's an equipment problem per Zelenskyy

"Ukraine cannot equip even 4 out of 14 required military brigades – Zelenskyy"

Ukrainska Pravda posted this article yesterday:
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/09/15/7475205/

"'First, it’s going very slowly [delivery of aid from partners – ed.]. Second, we need 14 brigades to be ready. As of now we do not have that, from this package of brigades we did not equip even 4.' Zelenskyy noted that during the eight-month pause that preceded the US Congress's decision to help Ukraine, all of the country’s reserves were used up. 'We used all we could. We have moved what we had in reserves, and what we had in storages or in reserve brigades, [because] we need that now. We took all their weapons'."

FYI, a Ukrainian brigade is 3000 - 5000 persons, depending on what sort of brigade it is.