The alleged shooter was 300-500 yards away?

[Oopsie Daisy]

That's quite a long distance. Was he a marksman? Could he have taken-the-shot from such a long distance?

With all the breathless accounts of how "close" he was to Trump, I wonder: was there a clear line of sight? Could he actually SEE Trump from his vantage point? Or were there trees, hills, buildings, walls, interior rooms, curvy paths, more trees that blocked his sight?

For clarity and perspective, the claimed distance would be equal to three-to-five playing fields... aligned end to end.



Trump was not in danger.

Here is another photo to help visualize the distances claimed. Find marker #17... that's 1500 feet. Marker #12 is close to 900 feet.



Trump was not in danger.

[essaynnc]

1. I also heard...

Ar-15s are not exactly accurate at long distances. Is this true too?

[marble falls]

4. Short barrels. Not overly accurate.

[sarisataka]

57. What are you comparing them to?

AR-15, 20 inch barrel, effective range 550m, carbine with 14 inch barrel effective to 500m

[marble falls]

71. Oh, I dunno, say a scoped hunting rifle. Effective and accurate are not the same thing.

[sarisataka]

72. When speaking of rifles, effective and accurate are synonymous.

It is not effective if it does not have the accuracy to hit at the range in question.

There was a time I shot at least annually at 500 yards, stock iron sights. I was very disappointed if I hit less than 80%.

[demosincebirth]

78. That's less than 500 yards. At 500 yards a 24 inch

bull’s eye is about the size of a head of a pin. I should know, I couldn’t hit one in four years in the infantry, using an M1, rifle. The best the army had.

[Kaleva]

6. He had an AK-47

[Oopsie Daisy]

13. Correct. When I change the firearm type, Google's answer changes:

No, an AK-47 is generally not considered accurate at distances of 900 feet (approximately 275 meters) due to its design and the ballistics of the 7.62x39mm cartridge, which is best suited for close to medium range engagements; most experts would consider its effective range to be closer to 350 meters (380 yards).

Key points about AK-47 accuracy at long distances:

Limited accuracy:
The AK-47's design prioritizes reliability and ease of use over long-range precision, leading to less accuracy at longer distances.

Cartridge ballistics:
The 7.62x39mm round has a relatively large bullet diameter and lower muzzle velocity compared to other rifle cartridges, impacting accuracy at longer ranges.

Iron sights:
Standard AK-47 iron sights are not designed for precise aiming at extended distances.

[Kaleva]

15. Yes

[underpants]

40. US Army BRM is 50-300 meters (328 yards)

Army BRM is from 50-300 meters (328 yards).
Basic Rifle Marksmanship. One week in basic. Hell they trained me up on a 16 in a week. I think I hit 33 or 34 out of 40. I just missed Expert which I think was 36.

[Aviation Pro]

54. Making it less accurate

.....

[Oopsie Daisy]

8. Interesting question. According to Google *

With the right combination of a high-quality AR-15, a good scope, and skilled marksmanship, an AR-15 can be accurate at distances of 900 feet, but it is generally considered near the upper limit of its effective range for most standard configurations; most people would consider a distance closer to 300-500 yards (around 900-1500 feet) to be more practical for consistent accuracy with a standard AR-15.

Key points to consider:

Caliber limitations:
The standard .223 Remington cartridge used in most AR-15s is not designed for extreme long-range shooting, and bullet drop becomes more significant at longer distances.

Optics are crucial:
To hit targets accurately at 900 feet, a high-quality magnified scope with precise adjustments is essential.

Rifle customization:
Upgrading components like the barrel, trigger, and stock can significantly improve an AR-15's accuracy at longer ranges.

[ExciteBike66]

9. Think this was an SKS, bigger caliber than the AR

Not an easy shot, but probably doable

[sir pball]

34. Caliber, as in bullet diameter, is almost meaningless for this discussion

Yes, it's 7.62mm rather than 5.56mm, but it's no more powerful than the AR, with a much lower muzzle velocity, so the larger bullet will actually lose speed and energy more rapidly compared to an 5.56, as well as be more susceptible to wind drift.

Now, if he had a plain-Jane bolt-action Remington Model 700 .308, the archetypal, inoffensive "deer rifle"…let's just say things might be different today. That is a literal "weapon of war", it's the exact same gun the US Army issues as the M24 Sniper Weapons System.

[Happy Hoosier]

43. The accuracy of the AR-15 depends upong the maker, model and ammo... but

this guy had an AK-47 knock-off... which are generally far less accurate.

Certainly not a reliable selection accuracy for anything beyond a couple hundred yards.

[sarisataka]

48. It depends on what you consider long distance

Back in the days of dinosaurs and VCRs I shot the USMC rifle qualification annually. The closest range was 200 yards, the farthest was 500 yards. We used the iron sights, no scopes. According to the book the M-16 (single fire so equivalent to the Ar-15) was accurate to 550m for a point target (human sized) 800m for an area target (vehicle sized). My experience was those numbers were very conservative.

The (not)shooter this weekend was using an AK platform. It was developed according to Soviet doctrine that said infantry engagements should take place beginning at 150m therefore the AK was designed to be accurate to 300m. Quality control among AKs leaves something to be desired. I have found good ones can reach the 300m goal but many will fall short of consistent accuracy at that range.

[yagotme]

58. And, it was a straight-off-the-rack, plain Jane M16A1.

20" pencil barrel. (You must have been at PI. Edson Range, Pendleton, was metric. 500 meters. Qual'ed expert. 220/250.)

[sarisataka]

59. Actually was a Hollywood Marine

but my boot camp book was from PI. I was Sharpshooter out of Edson, but in my defense I had a high fever on qual day. I shot 15 pts lower than I did on pre-qual.

[yagotme]

60. Yeah, I had a bad year once. Twisted my ankle pretty bad week before RR, they still sent me.

Off hand was a little uncomfortable, sitting was REALLY uncomfortable, bordering on actually painful, and kneeling, well, I had to squat down quick, fire the shot, and get back up off my ankle. Got SS that year, but in 6 1/2 years, got Ex 6 times. (One day, practice day, we had to quit at the 200 on Okinawa. Raining so hard, it peeled the targets off the backers!)

[Ping Tung]

79. M-1 for me. 300 was rather easy. 500 was not all that difficult.

We got stuck with the M-14 before I got out. Rust bucket.

[jmowreader]

73. He had an AK-47, not an AR-15

AK-47s are extremely inaccurate, and the man who invented it knew this: on the fire selector the full auto position is maybe a half-inch push down from Safe - the selector lever goes up and down on an AK - and the semiauto position is an inch and a half below Auto. The proper way to fire this weapon is to put it on automatic fire, point it in the general direction of the enemy and hold the trigger back until you run out of either bullets or enemy.

[SharonAnn]

80. AK-47? So I've heard.

[Dan]

82. In theory, if that distance...he would need a scope

Otherwise, unless he had “only the best” eyesight, it ain’t happening and if it did, it would be pure luck.

[Lonestarblue]

2. The media will milk this story for days.

The Secret Service is already being blamed, yet no one will question Trump about his own actions that put him at risk. He has rallies in open areas that make him vulnerable. He plays golf most days on courses that cannot be secured without a small army of agents. If he had any concern about his own life and those of the agents who protect him, he could take precautions like using indoor arenas and reducing his golf time or playing only on courses with little public access. I doubt Trump has any concern for anyone but himself and will just insist that he needs more agents.

[Bev54]

53. Yep and I was sick of it after the first hour.

Watching anything but US news.

[Kaleva]

3. The media has been reporting that Trump wasn't in danger

[bucolic_frolic]

5. Guy probably thinks he's going to be pardoned

that was part of the deal, no?

[malaise]

7. It was at best a foiled attempt

He never fired a shot

[John1956PA]

10. He was waiting at the golf course hole for Trump to arrive.

The Secret Service Agent was scoutung one hole ahead of the golfers.

[Whiskeytide]

67. I'm not sure why most people don't ...

… accept this as clearly the most logical and simple explanation for what happened. So many people are trying to determine if he could have taken out the target at whatever range he was at the time with this weapon or that weapon …

Seems pretty clear he was lying in wait for a close range shot, and was spotted by a SS agent scouting a hole or two ahead.

I guess we’ll get a more detailed explanation sooner or later, but my money is one that one.

[Takket]

11. As I understand it the SS was a hole ahead ahead of drumpf

And the shooter was there waiting for drumpf to approach hole but the SS agent saw him first.

So he was not “about to be shot” but rather the shooter was lying in wait.

[Emile]

12. How did he know about the unscheduled golf outing?

[Oopsie Daisy]

14. Excellent question.

[jmbar2]

16. Just follow the motorcade

tRump golfs every day. If you track his jet, you know what city he is in. He will go to the golf course in a huge procession any where he is staying. Entirely predictable.

[Bengus81]

22. He sure as shit wasn't out on the campaign trail,nah....keep golfing Trump,it will be over soon!

[jmbar2]

26. He campaigns like he's still on the TV show

Shows up for an hour or two, then out. Too lazy to ever be POTUS again, among many other deficiencies.

[Emile]

84. He was there 12 hours.

[jmbar2]

85. If you know what town he's in, you know he's going to the golf course.

Maybe he wanted to be in place long before the motorcade left to avoid drawing attention.

[Emile]

86. So he didn't follow the motorcade and knew for

sure about the unscheduled golf outing.

[jmbar2]

87. Trump golfs every day

[Emile]

88. So?

[underpants]

39. Trump plays almost every Sunday he's there.

[Attilatheblond]

77. It was a Sunday and not raining.

Pretty safe bet unless Trump had to be in court in NY on Monday.

[Omnipresent]

17. He ate a lot of carrots to get such great peepers!

[Bengus81]

18. Didn't Trumps buddies over at CNN announce he was "leaving" Mar-a-logo?

In reality he was two holes away and over a 1/4 of a mile. I'm glad another nut job with a gun of mass destruction was captured but these news organizations need to wait and then report with accuracy.

[duncang]

19. Routh may not have even seen tfg yet.

The course bends around at that corner. With trees between the two holes. The SS had someone going ahead of him checking.

[Abnredleg]

20. Hitting out to 500 meters with optics is not difficult

with some range time. We used to shoot out to 300m with iron sights with a fair degree of accuracy.

[John Farmer]

69. I wonder if whomever supplied the rifle claimed that it was sighted in--had he ever fired it?

[Happy Hoosier]

76. There is a fairly big difference....

... between getting hits on a stationary Silhouette at a known range of 300m with a quality gun like the M-4/16 platform and hitting a moving target at unknown tange with a an AK.

[Captain Stern]

21. Doesn't someone have to actually fire a shot to be a 'shooter'?

They caught the guy before he took a shot.

It sounds like he was waiting for Trump to get closer.

[malaise]

25. Precisely n/t

[TwilightZone]

30. No.

From Oxford:

"a person who uses a gun either regularly or on a particular occasion."
Ex: "a revolver in a broad range of calibers to meet the needs of every shooter"

From Cambridge:

"a person who uses a gun regularly, for example as a sport:
The area is a paradise for duck shooters."

Someone who uses a gun but is not currently shooting can still be a shooter.

Similarly, someone who hunts but is not currently hunting can still be a hunter.

[John1956PA]

46. Depends on the context.

If I ask the question as to how many shooters belong to my local Hunting & Fishing Club, that dictionary definition would apply to those members who are hunters.

If I ask the question as to how many shooters were present in Dealey Plaza in the twelve o'clock PM hour on December 22, 1963, that dictionary definition would not apply.

[Captain Stern]

66. I get your point, but the definition you provided confirms what I said, doesn't it?

To be a 'shooter' you have to have used a gun....either regularly, or on a particular occasion. If one hasn't ever fired a gun, I think you would agree that they aren't a 'shooter'.

In this particular incident, the person suspected of attempting to assassinate trump didn't fire a single shot. However, I think it's unreasonable to think that he's never fired any kind of gun, so....yes ....he's most likely a 'shooter'. But in this case (the one we're actually talking about), he wasn't a 'shooter'. Technically, the Secret Service guys were the shooters, right?

The point I was trying to make was that when folks are discussing a specific incident, it might be better to use terms that actually apply to that incident.

[Irish_Dem]

23. Didn't the shooter assume Trump would be moving closer to him?

Golfers move from hole to hole around the golf course?

[LizBeth]

47. The 300-500 could have been from where the shooter was to the green Trump

had not gotten to yet and they were just saying that distance once trump got into range.

[Irish_Dem]

90. Yes. This is a logical assumption.

[MorbidButterflyTat]

50. How would we know this?

Last edited Mon Sep 16, 2024, 02:54 PM - Edit history (1)

Was he interrogated by law enforcement and his statement released?




EDIT:

MSNBC: Secret Service briefing at 4 pm est.

[Irish_Dem]

89. Crime scene analysis

Target moving towards perp as he plays golf.
Perp has been waiting for target to do this.

[obamanut2012]

24. The rifle he had was also the wrong gun to use

It is not a long-distance sniper rifle.

[Abnredleg]

28. 300 to 500 meters is is not long range

for a infantry rifle, particularly with optics. Snipers shoot out to 2,000 meters.

[DeepWinter]

35. Heck

An off the shelf 5x scope from WalMart makes 300 yards seem like your backyard..

[underpants]

36. US Army BRM is from 50-300 meters (328 yards). You're right this isn't extremely far

Basic Rifle Marksmanship. One week in basic. Hell they trained me up on a 16 in a week. I think I hit 33 or 34 out of 40. I just missed Expert which I think was 36.

[sir pball]

42. 2000m is an exceptionally long range shot

Military snipers generally engage at 600-1200m, with the vast majority of shots being under 1km.

Yes, an AR can hit a man-sized target, say 3'x3', at 300m pretty well, but reliably hitting a 3" target at that range (minimum acceptable "sniper" accuracy) is a different story. My longest shot on a deer was a touch over 400m and it was challenging even with a 300WM and a 12x scope.

[uponit7771]

64. 2000 ***METERS*** is more than a mile and typical snipers shoot in 3 - 600 meter range (google results)

[EX500rider]

92. Current record is 3,800 meters

December 9, 2023:
In November 2023 a 58 year-old Ukrainian sniper belonging to the Ukrainian Security Service used a Ukrainian made Horizon’s Lord sniper rifle to break a distance record set in 2017. The Ukrainian sniper killed a Russian soldier 3,800 meters away using a rifle firing a 12.7mm, or half inch round modified for precision, as in sniper, use. The Ukrainian made Horizon’s Lord rifle is large, at 1.8 meters or 5.9 feet long and weighs 15 kg/33 pounds. It is a single shot weapon using a custom 12.7x114HL round. Most current ultra-long range sniper rifles use a 12.7mm round that was manufactured in batches to assure similarity in performance between rounds in a batch. The HL suffix indicates a customization of the standard 12.7mm sniper round for the Horizon’s Lord rifle. The rifle also mounts a 40x50 scope.

The previous distance sniper shot record was carried out in 2017 when a Canadian sniper in Iraq killed an ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) fighter at a distance of 3,540 meters

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/articles/20231209.aspx#gsc.tab=0

[Martin Eden]

27. If his intent was assassination, he was probably waiting for Trump to get closer.

That his concealed position was spotted at that distance indicates the SS wasn't especially incompetent this time. It would take a very large contingent to comprehensively guard a perimeter that large.

Other than the RW noise machine trying to milk this incedent for all it's worth, what is the most logical takeaway?

Man with arrest record and apparent mental health issues had access to an assault rifle, and the Mara Lago property is not very secure.

[John1956PA]

31. Trump traveled from Mar-a-Lago to the golf course in West Palm Beach.

It is thought that Routh saw the motorcade leave Mar-a-Lago and knew that it was heading to West Palm Beach for a routine Sunday golf outing.

[underpants]

37. That's what I thought too

The map I saw had hole 5 as the farthest (Trump was getting ready to putt on 5) then 7 then 6 is the closest. Kind of odd for a golf course to be set up that way if the map is correct.

[Martin Eden]

41. Regarding the seemingly illogical layout of the golf course

Remember, small hands Donnie had a hand in the making of it.

[GreenWave]

29. Does he have a food taster?

I mean an assassin can be a fry cook.

[DJ Porkchop]

32. Trump wasn't threatened.

But until these weapons are kept away from the psychotic children who love to shoot them, we all are.

[hlthe2b]

33. Didn't he have a scope?

[underpants]

38. It's been reported that he did.

[surfered]

45. It depends on the equipment (range finder, etc) and the skill level of the shooter. Practice, practice, practice

With the old M-16 (peep hole sights, no scope) , I could hit a silhouette target at 200 meters using the kneeling position.

[sarisataka]

49. I would consider 300 on the low end of medium range

Line of sight is an issue, most golf courses have somewhat rolling terrain which may limit how far away he could be seen.

However, with a decent rifle a trained shooter should be able to hit at 300 yards. {300 is about tops for a good AK, an SKS which can be made to look similar can go out another 100-150 yards} A good shooter would not strain at 500. I am not even considering the assistance a scope would provide. To claim he was not in danger is a bit naïve.

[brush]

51. Seems lone wolves do exist. Let's see what this guy has to say. Is he really a lone wolf nut or...

is someone behind him?

[MorbidButterflyTat]

52. Wondering what happened to the two people shooting at each other originally reported?

Disappeared once everyone agreed on a more sensational story of thwarted assassination?

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

56. That initial report was wrong

As they usually are. No surprise there.

[MorbidButterflyTat]

75. Really?

I'm surprised. Seems like a stretch to go from two people shooting at each other outside the club to lone gunman hiding in golf course bushes spotted by secret service but easily escaped capture in his car.

Especially since lone gunman didn't shoot.

Just another day in paradise.

[Wiz Imp]

55. 500 yards is more than a quarter of a mile

I saw that the SS supposedly saw the barrel of the gun through the fence at that distance. I call bullshit on that.

[sarisataka]

61. The wonders of modern technology

[yagotme]

62. TSF was about 3-500 yards away when gunman was discovered by SS,

who was scouting ahead 1 or 2 holes, for security purposes.

[Oopsie Daisy]

68. You're not alone.

[Wiz Imp]

83. From another post I just read:

US Atty is for southern district of FL just said a secret service agent was walking the perimeter, saw a rifle sticking out of the trees, fired a shot and the shooter fled. So the SS seeing the gun from 500 yards WAS bullshit, just like I said.

[Silent Type]

63. Was shooter planning on firing from 500 yards, or was he set up for when trump got closer? Think it's latter.

[uponit7771]

65. right, 500 meters is a over a quarter mile away and even with best equipment that's a hard shot in populated area

[sarisataka]

70. How populated is a golf course?

All that is needed is a clear line of sight

[Johnny2X2X]

74. He wasn't a shooter

He was a gunman. This was a man with a gun on Trump's golf course, that's all we know now.

[TheBlackAdder]

81. He was at the next hole, laying in wait. 300-500 yards is typical in golf courses.

[Straw Man]

91. From everything I've heard about the layout and the timeline ...

... he was waiting for the Trump party, who were playing their way toward his position.