TRUMP IS COLLAPSING AS KAMALA HARRIS GAINS 14 POINTS IN IOWA

[applegrove]

TRUMP IS COLLAPSING AS KAMALA HARRIS GAINS 14 POINTS IN IOWA

JASON EASLEY DONALD TRUMP, FEATURED NEWS, KAMALA HARRIS SUN, SEP 15TH, 2024

https://www.politicususa.com/2024/09/15/trump-is-collapsing-as-kamala-harris-gains-14-points-in-iowa.html

"SNIP........

Reliability red Iowa has become competitive as Trump’s 18-point lead over Biden is just a 4-point lead over Kamala Harris.

The Des Moines Register reported on their latest poll:

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows that Trump leads Vice President Harris 47% to 43% among likely Iowa voters — a far slimmer margin than the 18-point lead the former Republican president enjoyed over Democratic President Biden in late spring.

…

Before Biden ended his reelection campaign, a June Iowa Poll showed Trump leading 50% to 32%.

…

It also shows a sharp divide between men and women likely voters — Trump leads with men 59% to 32% over Harris. And Harris leads with women 53% to 36%.

[groundloop]

1. I sure the hell hope that trend holds across the country, we NEED an absolute landslide in November

That's what it's going to take to force the GQP to put orange fuckface out to pasture.

[Metaphorical]

2. What I find hopeful

is the fact that women tend to be more likely to vote than men. It's not a huge difference, perhaps two to three points, but that can make a big difference at the ballot box.

[Tree Lady]

15. I have to remind my husband to vote

if I knew he was for Trump and I wasn't I definitely wouldn't help! I could never be married to a republican though not sure how women do it.

[mucholderthandirt]

18. I didn't know my ex was Republican until far too late. I knew he was a Christian (was "saved").

I told him up front I wasn't, wouldn't be forced to be one, and he could just keep his religion to himself. I said he was already a perfectly nice human being and didn't need religion to continue to be so. Turns out he started going to church because some woman he was interested in went. He got brainwashed, she dumped him for someone else (rich and a "better" Christian).

To keep it short, the marriage was a nightmare, and only got worse when he turned Republican and tried to force all his beliefs on me. I left the military because he said he'd take the kids and I'd never see them again. Two nervous breakdowns later, I finally gave up. My kids needed me.

[Tree Lady]

25. Sorry you went through all that

My first husband got into drugs after we were married and I had to get me and kids away from that. So happy that was long time ago.

[Walleye]

26. I was thinking that the other day, can you imagine being JD Vance's wife?

[Diamond_Dog]

38. Someone here posted recently

“Usha, if you need help, use the hand signal.”

[Walleye]

39. Good one!

[Self Esteem]

3. Point of order: Trump really didn't "collapse" in this poll.

The last DMR poll had Trump leading 48-33 over Biden. So, he lost one-point. Where the gap shrinking comes from is Harris winning back voters who had abandoned Biden. It's impressive but it doesn't appear like Trump has lost much support.

[pat_k]

7. He's at both his ceiling and floor.

Although there are indications of a bit of erosion.

That was part of the discussion on the last That Trippi Show.

[orleans]

16. i never heard of this show. i've been listening to it and like it. when does he do the podcasts? (once a week? more?) nt

[pat_k]

17. Every Friday. Available wherever you get your podcasts.

I've sort of followed Joe Trippi since I met him during the Dean campaign. The insights from someone with "inside" experience can be interesting and paint a clearer picture of how things work (and fail to).

https://resolutesquare.com/shows/that-trippi-show

I often like Strategy Session too, particularly when Simon Rosenberg puts in an appearance. It's on Tuesdays.

https://resolutesquare.com/shows/the-strategy-call

[orleans]

19. thank you! nt

[Lonestarblue]

35. Another point is that Kennedy got 6% in this poll.

Presumably, now that he is part of the Trump campaign at least some of those responders will vote for Trump and increase his margin. Iowa is still filled with the MAGA cult so I don’t expect Trump to lose there unless something major changes the equation. Any Iowans here to weigh in on this poll?

[Self Esteem]

40. If it follows the same trends as 2016 and 2020, Harris has likely capped out.

In the early October, 2016 Iowa poll, Selzer had Trump winning 43-39 over Hillary (or exactly the same margin here).

Their final poll had Trump leading Hillary 46-39 (+7).

In the September, 2020 Iowa poll, Selzer had Trump and Biden tied at 47-47. Their final poll had Trump winning 48-41.

In both instances, their first poll was the highwater mark for the Democrat and the poll shifted either toward Trump or away from the Democrat.

If Harris can stay at 47%, though, that would be a huge win. That would be +5 from Hillary's total in Iowa and +2 for Biden there. It would indicate maybe she's running a bit ahead of Biden and that could point to a better showing in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

[speak easy]

4. Walz

[Blue Owl]

36. The southern belt of Minnesota was solid red before Tim Walz ran for office

It was basically an extension of Iowa some 90 miles north of the state line -- and when Tim ran for office he won in that very red part of the state. So Tim Walz can DO THIS for Kamala!!!

[elleng]

5. I ain't talking!!!

[pat_k]

6. Tim Miller discusses Ann Seltzer's Iowa poll as the carney in the coal mine.

It's considered a high quality poll. He talks about remembering where he was when Ann Seltzer's poll showing significant movement to Trump in 2016 came out
.
The discussion of the Iowa poll starts about 2 min in.

Before that he talks about the ABC/Ipsos national poll (which is also looking good with Harris breaking the 50% mark -- an important indicator of enough strength to overcome the Republican electoral college advantage.

[applegrove]

8. I worry that some of the increases in % for Kamala

is in Texas or Iowa or Florida.... places that we will not likely win but can up the results for Dems in national polls. Elections depend on the battleground states not the national polls.

[pat_k]

9. Likely it is. Which is why she needs to be ahead in the nationals at least 5 or 6 to hope to get to 270.

The strategy wonks have been relatively unexcited with the 2 to 4 point leads we've been seeing because they know she needs to be doing much better than that nationally to translate into at least 270 electoral votes. The number I hear most often is that a consistent 6 point (or greater) lead nationally has a very high probability of translating to 270+.

[applegrove]

10. Thanks.

[lees1975]

22. It may work out nationally, but that's not a good formula anymore.

The money is spent state by state, and she is just as likely to win it in the battlegrounds as he is, in fact, more so now that she leads in all of them.

[progressoid]

11. There is a case to be made that this will also help important down-ballot races as well.

[applegrove]

12. That would be good. Didn't think of that.

[Deminpenn]

21. Miller also noted that RFK Jr pulled 6% in this poll

Unlcear if those voters will stay with RFK Jr or move to Harris or Trump.

[pat_k]

31. Seems RFK believes his people lean Trump.

I think 2 or 3 percent could end up staying with Bobby (I think he's staying in the ballot) or not voting, with the rest being split between Trump, and Harris with Trump getting at most a point or point and a half out of it.

[ailsagirl]

13. Thank you for posting, applegrove!!

[mwb970]

14. The gender divide makes men look like fools.

I'm so surprised

[lees1975]

20. It's happening in every state where there's some polling data available...

I'd be willing to make bets on how badly the polls are going to underestimate Harris and overestimate Trump. I don't think we're looking at Johnson-Goldwater kind of numbers here, but I'd gladly include an electoral number for her at or above 350.

[PCIntern]

24. I posted that the other day

And people came after me hammer and tongs.

I agree with your post

[displacedvermoter]

29. People will go after you hammer and tongs

pretty readily here. A pack mentality at times.

[Torchlight]

23. Looks like September will be worse for him than August.

I can certainly see why so many are desperately hanging onto the few remaining polls showing him commanding the margin; without those cherry-pickers, they're forced to admit to the narrative of his dramatic failure.

The confidence I'm feeling about VP Harris' victory in November is exceed only by the efforts we're taking to see it happen.

[bucolic_frolic]

27. I got as far as COLLLAPSING and was hopeful

maybe tomorrow

[Omnipresent]

28. No way in Hell, did Donald Duck have a 18 point lead in Iowa.

If he has a 4 point lead now, he is either even with or trailing Kamala in that state.

[displacedvermoter]

30. The experts made New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New Mexico

swing states back before July. Even New York. I thought it was nonsense then, but was assured by smarter people here it was all true.

A single point Biden was behind was multiplied by 2 or 3 in terms of how much danger he was in. A single point that Trump was ahead was a big lead as the numbers "weren't moving".

[lees1975]

32. I've never been convinced by the flimsy evidence and shifting polls that Biden was going to lose the election.

And in spite of the wailing that some people here do when the inaccuracy and the ups and downs and inconsistency of polling data is in clear evidence and pointed out, I still believe Biden would have won an electoral win close to what he did in 2020. Biden had a steady, firm, solid lead over Trump in polling preferences right up until almost the time when it became apparent Trump would be the GOP nominee. That's when the needle began to move in his direction, though the GOP primary votes were an absolute disaster for him, even after everyone dropped out, he still couldn't quite get 80% of the GOP vote. And he's not likely to get it in November either, and that's not enough to win, and he wouldn't have, and he won't now.

There are several posts here now about red states where Trump's "lead" is way below what he pulled out in 2020, showing that 21% of GOP voters who made the effort to oppose him in the Primary may just show up and oppose him in the general election. That's on top of the independents he's lost,

[displacedvermoter]

33. Agreed then and now,

And now believe Harris will win pretty handily.

[republianmushroom]

34. I like it.

[BoRaGard]

37. Yay America!